Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
