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Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to escalate to a rare Category 5 hurricane as it shifts in the direction of the Caribbean island, causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

The cyclone, which recorded winds of up to 195 km/h as of 0600 Greenwich Mean Time, is now shifting northwest in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to reach land by early next week, according to meteorological authorities.

Alerts of power cuts and damage to infrastructure have been announced as Melissa generates up to 76cm of rainfall and coastal flooding as high as thirteen feet above normal levels. "Seek shelter now," locals have been advised.

The cyclone is the 13th storm in the current Atlantic storm period, which normally finishes in the eleventh month.

Category Five Hurricane Risk

A highest-level storm is the strongest type, with wind speeds of at least 252 km/h.

While Melissa is expected to reduce in intensity to a fourth-level storm before making landfall on the island, meteorologists said there was "almost no noticeable change in the total effects" upon making contact with land, and that the cyclone will be "at least that intensity" when it impacts the nation.

Immediate Readiness Measures

With tropical storm-level winds and rain predicted to begin long before it passes over the island's interior - perhaps encompassing the national capital - advisories state that "preparations should be rushed to completion".

"Several days of destructive gusts and intense precipitation has started and will cause severe and deadly rapid water accumulation and multiple rock slides," counseled meteorological officials.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said: "I understand that there are many Jamaicans who are concerned, who are extremely apprehensive, and with good reason: worry is natural.

"Yet the best way to address nervousness and any nervousness and anxiety is to be prepared."

Locals are being instructed to secure their homes with sand barriers and timber panels, and to stock up on basic necessities.

Broader Impact

Warnings are also in effect for parts of the neighboring country including the main city, Port au Prince, the adjacent nation and Cuba's eastern region, where Melissa is projected to bring comparable impacts by the midweek period.

Landslides currently triggered by the cyclone have already killed two in Haiti, according to emergency services.

Future Course

This weather system is projected to pass over the island nation by midweek before moving through the Greater Antilles and entering the Atlantic Ocean.

By the time it arrives at Cuba, it is forecast to have diminished to a category three storm.

Environmental Background

While it is challenging to link individual weather events to climate change, experts say it is causing meteorological events more common and more extreme.

Higher ocean heat produce greater water vapor in the atmosphere, helping fuel the development of hurricanes.

Ahead of the commencement of the current Atlantic hurricane season, climate agencies projected increased storm frequency, citing elevated ocean temperatures and potential enhanced seasonal rains around African coastal regions - where hurricanes typically originate.